Cameron blew it. Labour can win.

Robert Conquest made two great contributions to human knowledge. As a historian he revealed the truth about Stalin's purges in the 1930s. As a writer, he formulated two laws. His First Law states: "Everybody is reactionary on subjects he knows about." I don't think it is true. I would say that everyone is a gradualist reformer on subjects they understand. But Conquest's Second Law is a good guide to life, and especially politics. It says: "Every organisation appears to be headed by secret agents of its opponents."

That is how we should analyse this pre-election party conference season. The Liberal Democrats had clearly been infiltrated by a Conservative mole with a sense of humour. What would be funnier, the mole must have thought, than to have the party that wants to abolish property tax and replace it with a local income tax come out for a new tax on more expensive properties?

The Labour conference was plainly choreographed by Conservative Campaign HQ. The one thing that united the Conservatives in Manchester last week was their private desire to see Gordon Brown stay as Prime Minister up to the election. Hence the need for Labour, and Brown, to show resilience, determination and discipline.

The strategy for inflicting maximum damage on Labour's chances required the Prime Minister to make a good, but not very good, speech, and for everyone to stop talking about the leadership. Hence Alan Johnson, the Home Secretary, read like a hostage from a script drafted by Andy Coulson, just as conference opened, saying: "I haven't got that real aching desire to lead, which really is an essential quality in a leader." It worked a treat...

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